On prediction markets, users can bet on anything and everything. But for those swinging big wins, is it just luck? Some users don’t seem to think so.
In one recent event contract on Polymarket, users are wagering on the final storylines for the characters in the latest season of Euphoria, creator Sam Levinson’s HBO series about the messy lives of young people.
The market, titled “Who will die in Euphoria: Season 3?,” ranks Nate Jacobs (played by Jacob Elordi) and Rue Bennett (the lead character, played by Zendaya) as the characters with the highest likelihood of dying this season, at 82% and 61%, respectively.
Set to resolve by May 31, the same day as the season finale, the market will require the specified character to die on-screen or have their death explicitly stated in order for those betting “yes” to take their winnings.
While betting on a popular TV show seems ripe for prediction markets, some users are worried that those with ties to the show could have an added edge.
“Insider trading?” a user commented on the market. Another jokingly replied: “I’m one of the actors but won’t tell you which one.”
Insider betting is hard to prove
While it’s hard to prove whether any manipulation is happening or not, it is understandable why such suspicion might arise, as writers or staffers or others connected in some way with the show could potentially earn thousands of dollars by using their privileged information.
A review of the top holders of people betting “yes” on character deaths reveals that they only have positions in other Euphoria-related markets, while those betting “no” have a more diverse portfolio of positions.
There is still some time to go until this particular market is resolved, but the suspicions voiced by some commenters once again highlight worries about insider trading within the larger prediction market industry.
Polymarket declined to comment on the Euphoria bets. In the past, it has said that it takes a firm stance against insider trading.
One especially notable case involved a U.S. army soldier who placed bets on Polymarket, and was charged in April with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain. The soldier allegedly used classified information to generate upwards of $400,00 in winnings related to the military operation in Venezuela and the capturing of Nicolás Maduro.
Polymarket said it took swift action at the time. “When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & cooperated with their investigation,” the company posted on X. “Insider trading has no place on Polymarket.”
Polymarket is not alone in the struggle around insider trading. In April, Kalshi also revealed three cases of political insider trading. The company’s safeguards, which include blocking politicians and athletes from betting on issues they are connected to, flagged two Democratic primary candidates and one Republican candidate who were trading in relation to their campaigns.
Insider trading can still make its way to the platforms, as Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said at the time of the Justice Department investigation.
“This happens constantly behind the scenes, despite what many are led to believe,” Coplan said on X. “As with any fast-growing new space, we’re adapting and improving as we go.”