QUESTION: How in the world did Socrates distinguish that Texas would turn Blue but not Florida? Your computer was the only one to forecast that result.
GK
ANSWER: Look, 99% of the people who put out their forecasts are just an opinion. Far too often they will never forecast something they would never consider. Like CNN, they are claiming this is an extinction level event when Obama lost more seats in the Senate during his midterm election. You cannot forecast when you are biased because y0u want a particular outcome.
Socrates looks at this dispassionately. Nigel Farage came and spoke at our 2019 WEC in Rome and besides calling our WECs the Alternative to DAVOS, Nigel also confirmed that we were the only one to forecast that BREXIT would win.
The computer also forecast that Trump would win in 2016 to the shock of the entire world. Nigel said on stage he got the greatest kick looking at the faces of CNN that election night. Three out of four models project that Trump would win in 2016. I asked three girls in the 20s who were working for us who all said they votes against Hillary. I asked why? The response was the same. She wanted to draft women. They called her a “Female Nazi.” You had the older generation like Madalen Albright saying any woman who didn’t vote for Hillary was a traitor. Policies didn’t matter only gender. When I asked some young people who had voted for Trump before but voted for Democrats said they didn’t vote for the policies of Democrats, they voted against the policies of Trump. The computer does NOT show a 2028 victory for the Democrats.
Here is a chart we published back then projecting that it would be a 52 years high (51.6 years). These forecasts are NOT my personal opinion. Nobody can make such forecasts and be that consistent. In 1993, I stood up in Tokyo and made a forecast that some in the Japanese government did not like, I said the computer projected that the LDP would los power, the first time since WWII. Everyone was totally shocked. The LDP’s first major electoral defeat occurred in 1993, and its first loss of government power also happened then. The LDP was created on November 15, 1955, through the merger of two conservative parties. This was the first loss in a 38 year run.
What seems to have drawn a lot of attention is that the computer forecast Texas would return to BLUE but Florida would remain RED. The computer is NOT biased and it has no opinion.
Governors of Texas Since 1900
There is a major difference in the history of Texas vs Florida. The last 5 governors were Republican compared to only 3 in Texas. Until these last three governors, every governor before was Democrat whereas Florida has two Republican governors in 1967 and 1987.
The Number of Slaves Per State 1860
Virginia 490,865
Georgia 462,198
Mississippi 436,631
Alabama 435,080
South Carolina 402,406
Louisiana 331,726
North Carolina 331,059
Tennessee 275,719
Kentucky 225,483
Texas 182,566
Missouri 114,931
Arkansas 111,115
Maryland 87,189
Florida 61,745
Florida was never s major slave state. What few slaves there were, had been confined up north more in the farming area. Hence, Florida was the destination for the rich and famous since the 1920s. As a kid, I remember my family driving to Miami and we enjoyed the climate in the winter. This was a different mix from Texas. Keep in mind that the Democrats were the slave owners.
When I say we have the largest database ever assembled, I am not exaggerating. We have have the auction price of slaves from the different markets that are a reflection of labor costs and the rise and fall of employment. You see a sharp peak just before the Sovereign debt crisis of the 1840s when states went belly-up.
The computer is monitoring everything. I strongly advise that nobody better try to invade the South. We have a bunch of Red Necks who have been waiting to such a day. They will wipe out any such invasion before the military ever got here and all they are going to find is a bunch of empty shell casings.