QUESTION: Marty, your Civil Unrest models targeted 2026 coinciding with international war. We have seen the Middle East erupting as you warned and now France with Macron is like Nero playing the fiddle while Paris burns. He is sending in 70,000 troops to the street this weekend. That’s half the Ukrainian troops that have deserted.
The waves of riots that have so convulsed France in recent weeks are in fact already rippling across Europe. I heard Greece is starting to have protests. Milan last weekend, where Meloni condemned “hooligans” trashing the city; in Brussels, protestors clashed with police, also inspired by events in France, thousands have marched in Portugal; in Spain, tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets in cities including Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona.
Your computer is amazing. Does it pick up human nature as part of the economic cycle? Will this spread to the USA?
Robert
ANSWER: Macron seems to be playing the fiddle as Paris burns as you said. I have said many times, these things become CONTAGIONS. Rome overthrew its kin in 509BC and within months Athens did the same and Democracy was born and spread to other Greek states. The American Revolution was 1776 and that prompted the French Revolution in 1789. We saw Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China in 1989 and within month the Berlin Wall fell. The 1849 European Revolutions began in Sicily and spread to Europe overthrowing the French government then too. This is spreading throughout Europe and it will come to North America going into 2028.
Our model works because it is based on reality – not academic hypothesis. Look, every economic theory is worthless from Random Walks & Efficient Market Theory to Keynesian Economic & Marxism. They all assume rational behavior and that society can be forced to act as they theorize. The European Central Bank (ECB) introduced NEGATIVE interest rates in June 2014 and ended them in July 2022. For 8 years they used this theory believing they could PUNISH people for not spending money. It failed and stifled economic growth.
I am a TRADER not an academic. What I had to do was understand market behavior. The wildest theory was Efficient Market Theory assuming people act rationally and all information is in the market determining price. Only an academic would come up with such nonsense for anyone who has traded markets REAL TIME, know the well-known and long-standing Wall Street proverb:
“Buy the rumor, sell the news.”
To trade a market, you must pay attention to how psychology, emotions, social influences, and cognitive biases affect economic decisions. It challenges the traditional economic assumption that individuals consistently make rational choices designed to maximize their financial well-being. That is UNREALISTIC. This is why many core economic principles like Supply & Demand, Comparative Advantage etc, came not from academics, but traders. A guy cannot write a book on how it feels to give birth. Some things in life REQUIRE hands-on experience.
In 2020, I warned that real estate would RISE with the first uptick in interest rates. Many thought I was nuts. When mortages rates kept declining, the average person is not stupid. They waited because it might be cheaper tomorrow. As soon as the first uptick took place, people ran out and locked in mortgages. The same took place in Japan back in 1988. The Consumption Tax Act was passed by the Japanese Diet in December 1988, and came into effect on April 1, 1989. People ran out and bought ahead of the tax and this yielded the false impression that the economy was booming contributing to the December 1989 Bubble top. People rushed to buy appliances etc. because it would be more expensive with the new tax. When the tax came in, people stopped buying and the recession began.
People RESPOND on ANTICIPATION. I have said many times, my mother and her sister locked in 10-year CDs at the very high in interest rates in 1981 and they DID NOT ask me for advice. When I asked why she did that, she said when would she ever get 20% again. The average person is OFTEN the real forecaster and the pundits respond to the data, which means the people act FIRST!!!!
Traditional economics crafted by academics with ZERO trading experience typically assume that people respond logically to prices, incentives, and available information. Any seasoned trader knows that people frequently make decisions based on rumor, fear, greed, confidence, habit, and expectations, even when those decisions contradict their economic interests. The 1987 Crash asked fund manager why they sold. They said the Dow fell 1,000 points, nobody knew why, so they did not know if it would against tomorrow so they sold. It was LACK of information that caused the panic!!!!!
The Neocons have destroyed the world economy for they too always impose sanctions trying to PUNISH the people to force them to overthrow some government they do not like. Removing Russia from SWIFT resulted in splitting the world economy with the alternative system CHIPS. There is NO evidence that sanctions have ever worked even once.
They imposed sanction on Cuba in 1960 and are still there and the government is still there. Remove all sanctions, the people will prosper, and then they will take a stand against the government as we now see in France. Historical cases show that sanctions NEVER force a government to abandon a core strategic interest purely because of economic pressure. When the United States imposes sanctions with the explicit goal of changing a government’s behavior, the record demonstrates they only punish the people who then hate America. This is why the United States has a reputation outside of that it is imposing IMPERIALISM. These policies fail to work just as Keynesian Economics has failed.
The computer tracks the markets in advance of the numbers tapping into the TRUE nature of how markets and the economy function by Behavioral Economics, which flies in the face of the academics. A correlation of civil unrest and war has shown that when the economy is doing good, everything is functions.
Turn the economy DOWN, and you get civil unrest and war. As I have said, war does not come when everyone is fat and happy.
We are seeing protests now throughout Europe and you are correct, they have begun in Greece as well. It is spreading across all of Europe. With the Democrats coming into power this November, they are going to be vindictive as hell and the economy in the USA will turn down. They will raise taxes across the board and that is something you DO NOT do going into a global recession, which I have warned would accelerate from 2026 into 2028. This will heat up from February 2027.
The Democrats will NEVER learn because they cannot admit that progressiveness has NEVER worked once and it undermines the economy and eventually leads to its collapse. Wall Street is moving out of NYC thanks to Mandami and he will not relent. Where real estate was always in high demand even in North Jersey all because of NYC, that has already turned the corner and will decline sharply into 2028. Major New York banks are indeed shifting operations to other states. For at least one major bank, JPMorgan Chase, employment in Texas has already surpassed that in New York City.
JPMorgan Chase is the most typical case. According to its CEO Jamie Dimon’s shareholder letter and multiple reports, JPMorgan’s workforce in Texas has grown from approximately 26,000 in 2015 to approximately 32,000 today, while its New York City employees have decreased from 30,000 a decade ago to approximately 24,000. Dimon has also stated explicitly that JPMorgan now has more employees in Texas than in New York.
Goldman Sachs is building a large campus in Dallas, expected to accommodate approximately 5,000 employees. However, Goldman Sachs’ New York office remains its largest U.S. location, with approximately 7,800 employees, while the Dallas-Fort Worth area has approximately 4,500 employees. Therefore, for Goldman Sachs, Texas is expanding, but New York still holds the top position for now.
Are banks shifting operations abandoning NYC? The answer is Yes! Driven by tax, cost, and policy factors, banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are expanding their presence in Texas (particularly Dallas).
Just look to the hard-left in France candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has proposed just defaulting on the National Debt of France. He claims the ECB holds 19% of France’s current debt. He has correctly states that that there have been many historical precedents and that another cancellation would not be so unusual. The last time France defaulted on its sovereign debt was in 1797, during the period of the Directory, in an event known as the “bankruptcy of the two-thirds” (banqueroute des deux tiers).
Napoleon created the Caisse d’amortissement (sinking fund) to manage the national debt and constantly intervened in its operations, frustrating his finance minister. To bailout the nation, lacking the ability to sell debt under severe financial strain in 1812 (largely due to the disastrous Russian campaign), he had used the army’s treasury to lend to the state: In 1808, he arranged for the army’s treasury to “lend” 84 million francs to the state, which was then repaid with government bonds. He could not sell debt, so he took the pension funds of the army to finance the state without going to the public.
As we head into 2028, the world economy will go into a sharp recession. As I said, where the American Revolution of 1776 inspired the French to revolt in 1789, this time France is spreading civil unrest to the rest of Europe and with the Democrats being prowar with Russia claiming they are supporting Democracy excusing the lack of elections in Ukraine because they are at war, NEVER have elections been suspended in the USA or UK during time of war. They just hate the Russian people all because Hillary claimed she would have won but for Putin.
So, prepare. The Democrats will bring the very unsound finance to the USA and only then will we see tensions rise with the prospect that the USA will also separate for the LEFT cannot sleep at night when they know someone has more money than they do. So look well at France. France has FREE health care, paid parental leave, paid family leave, FREE child care, FREE preschool, 5 weeks paid vacation, a 35-hour work week, generous unemployment and housing benefits, and heavily subsidized higher education. The forecast published by the Bank of France in December 2025 for GDP growth is (0.9%). France is just unsustainable.