Most business leaders are laser-focused on the existential threat that AI poses, with many of them citing it as a reason for major layoffs. At an event on April 15, however, Indeed CEO Hisayuki “Deko” Idekoba suggested there’s another force that will wreak havoc on the labor market—one that he argued is more pressing.
“Actually, what is happening in all developed countries, including European countries and the U.S. . . . is a big demographic change: an aging labor market,” Idekoba said at Semafor’s World Economy Summit, Business Insider reported. He said the sheer number of people aging out of the workforce and retiring will have a “way bigger impact”—and a more immediate impact—than the changes fueled by AI.
Idekoba cited some of Indeed’s research on workforce changes in the U.S., which found that there would be a decline of about 20 million workers within the next 15 years. (He said this would represent about a 5% drop in the overall workforce.) According to Indeed, only 20% of those people will leave the workforce due to AI displacement. The vast majority—about 80%—will age out of their roles.
In countries like Japan, concerns over an aging workforce and declining birth rates have driven efforts to recruit more women workers. Conversely, as the Trump administration has cracked down on immigration, the U.S. may be left without an influx of new workers to fill many jobs, including those held by older employees who are likely to exit the workforce soon.
This looming labor shortage would likely be particularly acute in the trades, Idekoba said, where the U.S. is already struggling to keep up with demand. “What’s happening literally is there are so many open positions: construction jobs, plumbers, healthcare jobs, electricians,” he said. “Such fundamentally important jobs. But we don’t have a good pipeline.”
Some employers see automation as a potential solution for these woes, as more people retire and leave the workforce. A 2025 analysis by Yale University’s Budget Lab found that AI could mitigate labor shortages in certain industries; legal secretaries and administrative assistants, for example, represent jobs that are more exposed to AI and also dominated by older workers.
But as Idekoba pointed out, there are plenty of jobs that are less likely to be rapidly reshaped by automation—and AI won’t necessarily help bridge those gaps, let alone replace workers outright.