QUESTION: Does Socrates suggest that this will become a widespread Middle East War? Socrates’ Crude Oil forecast showed a Directional Change and a major target for March with yet a Panic Cycle in June. Socrates just gave a buy signal. My interpretation of what Socrates has been projecting is that this will not be like Venezuela short and sweet.
Paul
ANSWER: As I have explained in more detail in the report we priced at just $25 what cannot be fully aired on a blog post. The risk here is a religious war of Shia vs Sunni. The heads of the various states other than Iran are Sunni. The likelihood of them coming to aid Iran is zero. You saw Iran attacking the US military bases in all of the various states. The risk here that the Neocons have willfully ignored is civil uprisings throughout the Middle East.
The vast interior of the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Jordan, Syria (majority), and Turkey remain predominantly Sunni. There is significant hostility between some Shia and Sunni Muslims in certain parts of the world today. However, the relationship is incredibly complex. It ranges from peaceful coexistence and intermarriage in some cities to violent sectarian conflict in others.
As there is the typical Neocon claim that the people will rise up, overthrow their government, rejoice and give the Neocons a tickertape parade, has never happened even once. They say the samething about removing Putin and the Russian people will rejoice. They said the Iraqi people would rise up. That did not happen.
Regime Change has NEVER been accomplished with airpower alone. It always takes boots on the ground. Iran is 3 times the size of Iraq and it is mountainous (see Map). The Neocons have sold Trump a pile of BS to achieve their goal, which they have had for decades. This is not what Trump expected and they are destroying his legacy. Netanyahu is a Neocon, He went to school in Philadelphia and hung out with Irving Kristol, the father of the Neocons. Trump has been misled from every which direction.
The greatest risk that the Israelis and Americans have a lot of blood on their hands and people remember lost ones. Some 85 school girls were just killed in Iran. Do you think their parents will now welcome the Neocons with a tickertape parade? This risk remains turning this into a religious war which Iraq never presented. The Neocons are ruthless people who only see their objectives and nothing else. Iran was the ONLY state where the Shia were in charge of the government. I do not see the Sunni coming to their aid. This greater risk is a Shia uprising against sunni governments.
I agree, Socrates on Crude Oil is also suggesting that this will not be like Venezuela. I have said before, I believe the Neocons have so infiltrated the Trump Administration that they have constructed their version of the Iron Curtain around him because they see this as their moment in the sun.
I am naturally swamped right now. But I hope to do a private blog on all the month-end buy signals that were elected in February.