The Centre for Strategic and International Studies determined that the definition of a civil war is a conflict in which at least 1,000 people are killed. The institution likened the definition to the 1791 Whiskey Rebellion that broke out due to excessive taxation, and believes the US is on the brink of another civil war.
The first wave of the ECM following the 1776 revolution bottomed in 1784, the postwar adjustment phase, when the economy stabilized after independence. From there, the cycle advanced toward the 1792 peak, marking the first wave of rising confidence in the new system. That peak corresponded with Alexander Hamilton’s fiscal consolidation, the creation of the Bank of the United States, and of course, the excise tax on whiskey.
By 1794, as the ECM turned down into the 1798.6 low, we witnessed the collapse in localized confidence manifest as rebellion. Washington ordered federal troops to restore order, which many are juxtaposing to the current administration’s use of the National Guard in cities across America.
The current private wave began in 1985.65, and confidence in the system has continually decreased since then. The last public wave in 1934.4 began in the throes of World War II recovery, with the nation believing in a better tomorrow after securing victory over the Axis powers. By the end of that wave, we saw the rise of the welfare state, Bretton Woods, and the failure of Keynesian policy.
The current private wave will last until 2037.25, but will peak in 2032.95. Capital has fled into private assets such as real estate, equities, and crypto. No one is buying government debt. There are macro and micro problems looming. Within the states, there is an extreme division between two polar opposites points of view. We are currently amid the second-longest government shutdown in US history because neither side can agree on how to spend federal funds. One side envisions a Marxist utopia, while the other extreme sees technocratic control over consumerism.
The division cannot be repaired. The cycle can never be controlled or altered, although countless men have tried and failed over the course of history. The United States is due for another massive civil war, but this time, it will be far larger than a mere revolution over taxes. Governments across the world will experience an uprising that causes their demise post-2032, and a new system will emerge. This is not my opinion – it’s just time.