QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I am new to your site. I have a question. I understand you are a trader, not an academic. That is the only reason I do read you. Why are academics incapable of ever forecasting the economy?
DL
Larry Summers Opinion _ Preparing for the next recession – The Washington Post
ANSWER: If you just listen to the interview of Larry Summers on forecasting, you will see that they do not believe you can forecast anything because it is complex like , so weather if your forecast come true, it is only because of influence – not some model forecast. This is why they have hated me so much. They refuse to accept that there can even be a model or cyclical analysis.