Oil prices spiked Thursday after the U.S. announced massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry in an attempt to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and end Moscow’s brutal war on Ukraine.
U.S. benchmark crude jumped 5.8%, to $61.91 per barrel midday Thursday, and analysts say if the situation remains static, U.S. consumers will soon be paying more at the pump.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said while it was difficult to predict with certainty because of the number of moving parts, consumers will likely see a bump in prices as early as next week, if not sooner.
“We’ll probably start to see motorists be impacted by the sanctions at the pump in the next couple days and it might take five days for that to be fully passed along,” De Haan said, adding that the full impact also depends on whether the Russian or U.S. positions change.
“Russia will feel pressure to come to the table in light of the new developments or President Trump may react when he sees oil prices rising to levels that become uncomfortable, so I don’t think this is going to be very long-lasting,” De Haan said.
Oil prices have been relatively low for the past few years and last week the cost for a barrel of U.S. benchmark crude fell below $57, its lowest level since early 2021. The price for a barrel of U.S. benchmark crude did rise near $79 a barrel early this year, just before President Donald Trump took office, a price not necessarily considered outrageously elevated by most analysts.
The broad, extended decline in oil prices pushed the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. last week under $3 for the first time since December of last year, according to GasBuddy.
For much of 2025, inflation has been held mostly in check, partly due to cheaper prices at the pump. However, that could change quickly as higher energy costs have a downstream effect on prices for virtually all products and services across industries.
“The impact to a lot of Americans is that products derived from cruel gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are all likely to see price increases,” De Haan said.
The main reason oil and gas have stabilized at lower levels this year is that the group of countries that are part of the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries has continued to boost production. Earlier this month, OPEC+ leaders announced they would raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same amount announced for October. The group has been raising output slightly in a series of boosts all year after announcing cuts in 2023 and 2024.
Russia is the leading non-OPEC member in the 22-country alliance. The group’s next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2.
The sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil follow calls from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as bipartisan pressure on Trump to hit Russia with harder sanctions on its oil industry, the economic engine that has allowed Russia to continue to execute the grinding conflict even as it finds itself largely internationally isolated. The European Union on Thursday announced its own measures targeting Russian oil and gas.
The price for Brent crude, the international standard, rose $3.26 on Thursday to $65.85 per barrel.
—Matt Ott, Associated Press business writer