A new report from Realtor.com found that nearly one-third of employed young adults in the United States are now living with their parents. These are people with jobs. They are working, earning income, and still cannot afford to establish independent households. The politicians and economists who constantly celebrate employment statistics fail to understand that a job is meaningless if it no longer provides a path to basic economic independence.
For decades, homeownership was the foundation of the middle class. A young person could graduate, find employment, purchase a starter home, build equity, raise a family, and gradually accumulate wealth. That cycle created economic stability and social cohesion. Today that entire model is breaking down. Home prices have vastly outpaced wages. Insurance costs are rising. Property taxes continue climbing. Mortgage rates remain elevated compared to the era of artificially suppressed interest rates. The result is that millions of young adults are trapped in economic limbo despite doing everything society told them to do.
This trend is not isolated to the United States. We see the same pattern throughout Canada, Britain, Australia, and much of Europe. In some countries, the average home now costs seven, eight, or even ten times average household income. Historically, such ratios were considered unsustainable. Today, they are treated as normal. Young people are delaying marriage, delaying children, and delaying household formation because the economic foundation required to support those milestones has become increasingly unattainable.
What many fail to understand is that housing has become one of the most important confidence indicators in society. When people believe they can improve their lives through work and effort, social stability follows. When an entire generation concludes that homeownership is permanently out of reach, confidence begins to erode. That erosion eventually manifests itself politically, economically, and socially. Rising populism, declining trust in institutions, and growing generational resentment are all symptoms of the same underlying problem.
This is one reason why our recent Real Estate Report was so important. Real estate is not simply about housing prices. It is a reflection of confidence, capital flows, demographics, taxation, government policy, and economic opportunity. Many governments have treated housing as a financial asset to be inflated rather than a foundation for society. The consequences are now becoming impossible to ignore. Young adults are remaining with their parents longer than previous generations not because they want to, but because the economics increasingly leave them no choice.
Our long-term models continue to suggest that real estate will experience increasing regional divergence into the years ahead. An entire generation is losing confidence in the traditional path to economic security. That may prove to be one of the most significant social and economic developments of this decade. Yet another reason why it is paramount to hold this one-day conference next month on Understanding the World Economy to explain the new realities no one else is willing to discuss.