The latest employment numbers have dropped—and the job market still looks tough for workers.
Today’s jobs report shares data from November, which was delayed due to the government shutdown that lifted last month. As jobs growth has slowed in recent months, the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in September and the highest it has been in four years. Employers added only 64,000 jobs in November, and the market also shed 105,000 jobs the month prior. Wage growth has stagnated to a degree that hasn’t been seen since 2021.
The jobs report seems to confirm what many workers are likely encountering as they try to navigate the current job market: Employers are simply not hiring at the same rate, due to economic uncertainty and the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration. The current climate has been described by experts as “low hire, low fire,” which means the workers who do lose their jobs are struggling to find new employment. The share of Americans who have been out of work for over six months has jumped to 1.9 million, when it was 1.7 million a year ago. That’s not great news for people affected by the layoffs sweeping through companies like UPS and Amazon, which had raised alarm bells about the broader labor market.
On the whole, however, the jobs report indicates employers are not cutting jobs at a concerning rate: Initial claims for unemployment insurance are still relatively low, which is usually a measure of whether layoffs are roiling the economy; (The job losses from October also reflect the exit of over 150,000 federal workers who had accepted deferred resignation offers and are no longer on the payroll.) The rising unemployment rate seems to be fueled by the hiring slowdown—which has left workers who are laid off with fewer job opportunities.
At the same time, however, economists say that a decline in immigration has kept the unemployment rate lower than it should be, since there are fewer people entering the labor force. That might explain why the unemployment rate isn’t even higher, given the hiring outlook, though Black workers are also seeing a significant spike in unemployment—a sign that the labor market might be weakening.
It’s a confusing picture for people who are seeking new jobs or entering the workforce. The jobs report tells us that the labor market has, in fact, cooled, but perhaps not to the extent that you might expect amid recurring reports of layoffs. There are a number of other factors that workers are up against: Artificial intelligence is fueling fluctuations in the workforce, with some employers citing the technology as they issue layoffs, though that might not be the true reason for shedding workers.
Still, there don’t seem to be clear recession indicators—at least for now. There might even be a glimmer of hope for workers in the job growth figures from November: While the gains were modest, it looks like private employers may be slowly starting to hire more, particularly in the healthcare sector.