Despite repeated threats from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, prediction markets are signaling overwhelming confidence that the Israeli leader will travel to New York before September 30.
According to Polymarket, the probability that Netanyahu will visit New York before the end of September has climbed to approximately 85%, reflecting traders’ belief that the trip will proceed despite the political controversy surrounding it.
The controversy began after Mamdani declared that if Netanyahu came to New York, he believed the Israeli leader should be arrested in connection with the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant over alleged war crimes in Gaza. However, Mamdani later acknowledged that New York City has no legal authority to carry out such an arrest, instead urging the federal government to take action.
Netanyahu dismissed the threats, accusing Mamdani of promoting antisemitism and fostering division while confirming that he intends to travel to New York in September to address the United Nations General Assembly. The Israeli prime minister has consistently rejected the ICC allegations, describing them as politically motivated and denying that the court has jurisdiction over Israel.
Israeli officials have also rallied behind Netanyahu, portraying Mamdani’s comments as an attack not only on the prime minister but also on Israel’s legitimacy. Members of Netanyahu’s government argued that attempts to intimidate Israel’s elected leader reinforce concerns about growing anti-Israel sentiment among some progressive politicians in the United States. They stressed that Israel will continue engaging with its allies regardless of political pressure from local officials.
President Donald Trump has also sharply criticized Mamdani in recent weeks, accusing the New York mayor of embracing radical left-wing policies and encouraging hostility toward Israel. Trump has repeatedly defended Netanyahu and reaffirmed his support for the U.S.-Israel alliance, arguing that America’s closest ally in the Middle East should not be subjected to politically motivated threats while visiting the United States. His administration has consistently rejected the legitimacy of the ICC’s actions against Israeli officials.
Legal experts have likewise noted that Mamdani’s rhetoric lacks a clear legal foundation. The United States is not a party to the Rome Statute that created the ICC, and a mayor has no authority to enforce international arrest warrants. In addition, heads of government traveling to the United Nations traditionally receive significant diplomatic protections, making any attempt to detain Netanyahu highly unlikely.
Beyond the legal questions, the episode has become another flashpoint in the broader political debate over Israel within the United States. Supporters of Netanyahu argue that the mayor’s comments were largely symbolic and designed to appeal to a progressive political base, while critics of the Israeli government continue to call for greater accountability over the war in Gaza.
The surge in Polymarket’s odds suggests that traders believe political rhetoric is unlikely to prevent Netanyahu’s visit. Prediction markets, which aggregate the expectations of thousands of participants willing to risk real money on future events, often reflect confidence in likely outcomes rather than political messaging alone.
For now, the market appears to be sending a clear signal: despite Mamdani’s highly publicized threats, investors overwhelmingly expect Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to arrive in New York as planned, underscoring the limited practical effect of the mayor’s statements.
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