Germany’s own intelligence service is now warning that the confrontation with Russia is entering a far more dangerous phase. Martin Jäger, head of Germany’s BND foreign intelligence service, told parliament on October 5 that Germany risks becoming embroiled in a violent conflict with Russia. He described what is taking place across Europe as a Russian “shadow war” that has entered a “new, more dangerous dimension.”
October 5, on that very date, Germany’s intelligence chief is warning that the confrontation with Russia is moving beyond Ukraine. Germany points to drones, cyberattacks, sabotage, espionage and attacks against infrastructure throughout Europe. German authorities have accused Russia of involvement in an attempted drone attack against a Ukrainian transport aircraft at Leipzig airport. Moscow denies conducting such a campaign and insists it has no intention of attacking NATO.
Jäger declared that “Russia is our most dangerous adversary.” He said the danger of attacks against German targets remains “real and imminent” and accused Moscow of testing Germany to see how far it can push. Perhaps most alarming was his warning about what comes next: “Russia could engage in low-intensity military activities, particularly in the Baltic states.” Germany is openly talking about a conflict that could creep across NATO’s borders without beginning with some formal declaration of war.
What concerns me most is that Jäger openly discussed the possibility of Russia conducting limited operations against the Baltic states to test NATO. Not necessarily thousands of tanks rolling across a border, but something deliberately ambiguous enough to determine whether NATO actually has the political courage to respond. What constitutes an attack today? A drone entering NATO airspace? A commercial vessel destroyed in the Baltic? The lines that once separated war from peace have become dangerously blurred.
Germany’s military is issuing much the same warning. Major General Christian Freuding, who oversees Germany’s support for Ukraine, has warned against assuming Europe has years before a confrontation with Russia. He said the question of when Russia might be capable of attacking NATO is becoming almost irrelevant because Moscow already possesses forces and weapons that could be used against the alliance today. “Russia already has the capabilities to attack NATO territory now,” Freuding warned. That does not mean Germany believes Putin is preparing to invade tomorrow, but this constant rhetoric matters. German intelligence warns of a shadow war, its generals say Russia can attack NATO now, and Berlin is simultaneously rearming at a pace not seen in generations. The danger is that Europe is no longer preparing for some theoretical war in 2029. Its own military leadership is telling the public that the confrontation could come much sooner.
Europe helped create this situation by pretending it could wage an unlimited proxy war against a nuclear power while keeping everything neatly contained inside Ukraine. Germany supplies weapons to Kyiv and has become one of Ukraine’s largest supporters. Poland is rapidly militarizing. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. Lithuania sits beside Kaliningrad and is moving to remove its prohibition on nuclear weapons. Russia responds by strengthening its own defenses, and Europe then points to that response as evidence that Moscow is preparing to attack.
The Baltic is becoming perhaps the most dangerous pressure point. Russia has already warned that any attempt to attack or isolate Kaliningrad could produce a response involving nuclear weapons. Jäger is now warning NATO not to simply wait for 2029, the timeframe often discussed for when Russia could become capable of a larger confrontation with the alliance. Something smaller could happen first.
The War Cycle does not mean someone declares World War III on a particular day. It marks periods when geopolitical pressure intensifies and governments become increasingly aggressive. Europe says it is preparing for war to prevent war. Russia says precisely the same thing. Eventually, with this many weapons, drones, troops and intelligence operations rubbing against one another, all it takes is one mistake to set off something nobody can control. Germany’s intelligence chief is effectively admitting we are getting dangerously close to that point.