Bulgaria has now become the latest country to step away from Europe’s proxy war with Russia. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev announced that his country is withdrawing from the Western-backed “Coalition of the Willing,” making it clear that Bulgaria will no longer participate in initiatives centered on providing continued military and financial assistance to Ukraine. Instead, Radev declared, “The solution to this conflict is not in prolonging it by military means, but in a strong diplomatic mission that will finally put an end to the escalation.”
I have said from the beginning that this war could never be won on the battlefield. Politicians sold the public the fantasy that Russia would collapse under sanctions, that Putin would be overthrown, or that Ukraine would somehow achieve total military victory if only another weapons package were approved. Four years later, none of those predictions materialized. Instead, Europe has spent hundreds of billions financing a war that has devastated Ukraine while simultaneously damaging its own economy.
What Bulgaria understands is something Brussels still refuses to admit. Every euro sent to Ukraine is borrowed money. Europe is already drowning in sovereign debt while governments are increasing military spending to levels not seen since the Cold War. They continue talking about rebuilding armies, expanding missile production, and preparing for conflict with Russia while their own economies stagnate. At some point voters begin asking why there is always money for war but never enough to lower taxes, repair infrastructure, or reduce the soaring cost of living.
This is exactly what our computer has been warning would happen. Wars are never lost simply because one army wins a battle. They collapse because the coalition financing the war begins to disintegrate. Every alliance eventually reaches a breaking point when the economic burden becomes greater than the political benefit. Bulgaria is unlikely to be the last country to reconsider its position.
The establishment immediately labels anyone seeking negotiations as “pro-Russian.” That has become the standard response whenever someone questions the wisdom of endless war. Radev rejected that characterization by arguing that diplomacy, not continued military escalation, offers the only realistic path to ending the conflict. His position reflects a growing reality across Europe that endless military aid has failed to produce the decisive victory repeatedly promised to taxpayers.
Meanwhile, Europe continues demanding more sacrifices from everyone except the politicians making these decisions. Defense budgets are expanding. Governments are discussing conscription once again. Ukraine has resorted to forced mobilization, with countless videos showing military recruitment officers dragging men off the streets in broad daylight, pulling them from shopping centers, buses, restaurants, and workplaces. I have written repeatedly that once a government begins kidnapping its own citizens to sustain a war effort, it is admitting that voluntary support has collapsed. Europe is now moving even further by discussing refugee policies that would make it harder for military-aged Ukrainian men to remain abroad instead of being sent back into the conflict.
Only days ago, members of the Coalition of the Willing met in Paris to discuss expanding military cooperation, increasing financial commitments, and even developing a shared European ballistic missile defense system. The political class continues speaking as though escalation is the only acceptable path while one of its own members has now publicly walked away from the project. That is not unity. That is the first visible crack in the foundation.
Our computer has never viewed this conflict as merely a war between Russia and Ukraine. It has always been a broader geopolitical struggle that would ultimately reshape Europe itself. The sovereign debt crisis, the energy crisis, the migration crisis, and now the military crisis are all converging. Governments believe they can hold this coalition together indefinitely, but history suggests otherwise. Every alliance eventually fractures under the weight of prolonged war.