Much like how the character Jack Dawson proudly proclaims to be king of the world after boarding the Titanic, film director James Cameron could claim to be king of the box office.
Cameron chooses to take a mellower approach, letting the numbers do the talking. His latest film, Avatar: Fire and Ash, hits theaters this Friday and is primed to break even more box office records.
Let’s take a look at the history of this franchise before we discuss industry projections.
A brief history of the ‘Avatar’ films
The first Avatar film came out in 2009 and received generally positive reviews. “Cameron and his artists have so lovingly imagined the moon of Pandora that every shot of the film contains new wonders. One can lose oneself in this world,” gushed Vulture’s Bilge Ebiri.
On both the domestic and world stages, Avatar became the highest grossing film of all time.
Domestically, Star Wars: Episode VII—The Force Awakens dethroned it in 2015, and similarly, Avengers: Endgame took the No. 1 spot worldwide in 2019.
However, Avatar fought back in 2021 and retook the title of worldwide highest grossing film of all time thanks to a re-release.
Beyond box office records, the first Avatar film also introduced the industry and audiences to new technology.
Cameron and his team developed the Fusion Camera System, which shot in 3D. Additionally, the team utilized virtual cinematography to aid in the motion-captured sequences.
The release of Avatar: The Way of Water, the second film in the series, was delayed, in part, so even more technology could catch up with Cameron’s vision.
This time around, Cameron created new ways to film underwater to introduce a new group of Na’vi, the moon-dwelling species at the heart of the franchise.
The 2022 release also marked an expansion of the scope of the project. Cameron’s original idea was to make a trilogy. After establishing a writers’ room in 2013, three movies became five.
Cameron’s gamble paid off as the sequel became the third highest-grossing film of all time globally.
What are critics saying about ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ so far?
Ahead of its theatrical release, critics have given Avatar: Fire and Ash mixed reviews. Most praise the film’s visuals, but lament the thin repetitive storyline.
“Fire and Ash is sound and fury signifying nothing. Or at least nothing excitingly new,” wrote David Rooney of the Hollywood Reporter.
Owen Gleiberman of Variety agreed and even posed a hard question. “It’s fine, but do we actually care about it?”
On Rotten Tomatoes, the movie had a 67% Tomatometer rating and a 93% Popcornmeter rating as of Friday.
What are the box office predictions?
Despite the mixed reviews, Avatar: Fire and Ash is still expected to perform well at the box office.
Variety predicts the film will make $90 million to $105 million domestically on its opening weekend and an additional $250 million to $275 million around the world. (Deadline makes a similar forecast with a combined global box office of $340 million to $380 million.)
The previous Avatar films, Variety further notes, become record breakers not only because of impressive opening weekends but also because of long-running box office dominance.
Fire and Ash is expected to follow the same pattern. If it does, the potential is huge. Combined, the previous two films have already generated more than $5 billion at the global box office.
Either way, the movie is expected to be a boon for Twentieth Century Studios and parent the Walt Disney Company.