Maybe President Donald Trump really does believe that “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.
Despite higher prices, criticism from trade experts and displeasure among voters, Trump holds fast to his belief that imposing the highest import duties on U.S. trading partners since the Great Depression is a winner.
A recent poll suggests that is a big gamble with less than a month before the Nov. 3 midterms. Most U.S. adults disapprove of his trade policies, with more than 64% saying he has gone too far with his latest tariffs, compared with 58% in January.
A look at the political, legal and economic challenges to the Republican president’s approach to trade.
Where Trump’s ever-changing tariffs stand today
The United States has set taxes on imports from most countries in the low double digits, although the rates have gone up and down because of legal setbacks as well as Trump’s habit of changing them seemingly on a whim.
In the biggest round last year, Trump levied what he called “reciprocal” tariffs and other duties on dozens of countries. He cited a 1977 law that he said allowed him to act without congressional approval in an economic emergency.
After the Supreme Court struck that down in February, Trump turned to an array of other trade laws to accomplish his goals.
The primary one he is using now, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, allows him to impose tariffs on countries that he believes are engaging in unfair trade practices, such as not adequately enforcing a ban on forced labor. The new duties range from 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, including big U.S. trading partners such as the European Union, India, Japan, Canada and Mexico.
Why trade experts think Trump is causing more damage than good
Trump is taking a sledgehammer to a relatively open global trading system that many mainstream economists think has benefited the U.S. enormously. It has helped boost growth, keep prices low and make U.S. businesses more competitive and often dominant in global industries.
The U.S. is the second-largest exporter in the world, after China. It exported $3.4 trillion in goods and services last year, far ahead of third place Germany’s $2.3 trillion.
Although Trump claims foreign exporters are paying tariffs, it is mostly Americans who are footing the bill. Studies, including ones from New York Fed and Harvard, have shown that overseas companies have largely not lowered their prices to offset the tariffs that U.S. businesses pay at the border. Those businesses are absorbing the added costs or passing them along to consumers through higher prices.
The White House responds that the factory boom is already underway and points to statistics showing that manufacturing jobs, after falling last year, are on the upswing and work in certain nonresidential construction trades is rising, too.
“Factory construction jobs of today mean more manufacturing jobs down the road once those factories come online,” said White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers.
Mixed evidence that countries are ‘ripping off’ the US
In the four years after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, nearly 3 million U.S. manufacturing jobs were lost, accelerating a shift away from factory work. Even global trade enthusiasts recognize the damage. Many U.S. companies struggled to compete with an influx of discounted products from China, which has suppressed consumption to encourage exports.
It also is true that some countries have higher tariffs than the U.S., manipulate their currencies lower to ensure to make their exports to the U.S. cheaper and help industries with subsidies.
But tariffs among U.S. major trading partners are low, often comparable to U.S. rates and sometimes lower.
Before the trade war, the U.S. rate averaged 1.47% for goods from the European Union, slightly above the average 1.35% imposed by the EU on American products, according to the Brussels think tank Bruegel. Europeans are big buyers of what America wants to sell. About 30% of European imports are from U.S.-owned companies, according to the European Central Bank.
The relationship with Canada, America’s big trading partner to the north, was also similar before trade talks broke down this summer. Canada’s effective tariff rate on U.S. imports was about 2.4%, less than half the 5% that the U.S. had on Canadian imports, according to calculations by Oxford Economics.
Now the countries are mired in a tit-for-tat dispute, with both countries escalating tariffs on each other.
—Bernard Condon, AP Business Writer