QUESTION: Why do you say there is a time bomb ticking in Alberta?
Jeff
ANSWER: Separatist movements globally typically have economic demands; they usually also involve religious, linguistic, or nationalist factors. However, some separatist movements emerge for economic reasons. We saw that in the US Civil War, when the South seceded. That was all about economics, where they cited the slavery issue and eliminating their workforce. Keep in mind that this was about 50 years before the invention of farm machinery.
The “glue” holding Alberta within Canada is primarily the clear mainstream public opinion of Alberta residents and their emotional attachment to Canadian identity, rather than economic, religious, linguistic, or even nationalist issues. Although separatist sentiment exists, it remains a minority. In the October 2026 referendum, approximately 76% of voters supported continuing to remain in Canada. Carney fostered that claiming Trump wanted to tale Canada as the 51st state. Constitutionally, that would be impossible since that would change the balance of power in the Senate and the Democrats would insist on also admitting Puerto Rico, Guam, and Washington, DC. But Carney successfully gained power by using Trump, who was foolish enough to even talk about a 51st state.
Important financial backers of the movement include oil and gas company executives in Calgary, and the movement envisions an independent Alberta becoming an “oil state” like Qatar or the UAE, free from federal regulation.
The idea that Alberta’s energy wealth subsidizes other provinces is a core grievance of the Alberta separatist movement. What will happen will be the same response to a war with Russia where energy prices rise dramatically into 2028 as took place during the ’70s and OPEC Crisis. During the oil crisis of the 1970s, the tax proposals under discussion primarily targeted windfall profits of oil companies (Windfall Profit Tax). With the prospect of oil reach $200 in the year ahead, this will become a sticking issue that resurfaces. There are no pipelines from Alberta going East. They still import oil from Middle East. Carney will resort to Windfall Profits Tax to compensate the East.
As they say in OPERA, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings, for she usually has the best voice.