If you’re flying later this month, you may need to temper your expectations now: The major U.S. airlines are warning that flight disruptions could persist even after the government shutdown ends.
The longest government shutdown in U.S. history seemingly has an end in sight now that the Senate passed legislation Monday night to end it. But the recent flurry of canceled and delayed flights could continue, warned a trade group made up of the major U.S.-based airlines—American, Southwest, Delta, and United—as well as UPS and FedEx.
“Airlines’ reduced flight schedules cannot immediately bounce back to full capacity right after the government reopens,” Airlines for America said in a statement on Monday. “It will take time, and there will be residual effects for days.”
STRAIN ON AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS
Federal workers, including air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents who have continued working during the shutdown, have seen two consecutive zero-dollar paycheck cycles. And that’s led to some employees calling out sick and taking on extra work elsewhere—or even quitting their jobs altogether because of the stress the shutdown has inflicted.
That’s unlike what’s happened during past government shutdowns, and notably the one in 2019, Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, told CNN last week. Further compounding issues, he said, is that there are 400 fewer air traffic controllers employed today than during the shutdown during Trump’s first term in office. “Controllers are resigning every day now because of the prolonged nature of the shutdown.”
And following the 2019 shutdown, it took up to two and a half months for these employees to get their back pay, Daniels told CNN.
President Donald Trump threatened on Monday to dock the pay of those air traffic controllers who have called out during the shutdown with a blanket instruction to “report to work immediately.” The president also said he would recommend a bonus of $10,000 for those air traffic controllers who didn’t take any time off during the shutdown in a post on Truth Social.
Then, Trump went so far as to encourage some government employees to quit. “If you want to leave service in the near future, please do not hesitate to do so, with NO payment or severance of any kind!” he wrote.
FOCUS ON THANKSGIVING
Air travel disruptions have been an increased focus of the Trump administration in recent days. On Sunday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy issued a dire outlook, warning that a “substantial” number of Americans won’t make it home for Thanksgiving on November 27. In 2024, AAA projected that 5.84 million would fly domestically for the holiday, about 7% of the total number of travelers.
Another aviation and aerospace trade group, Modern Skies, put this year’s Thanksgiving travel estimate much higher, at 31 million. In an open letter to Congress on Tuesday, the group of 50-plus aviation and aerospace companies, organizations, and unions urged an immediate end to the shutdown.
“The job of keeping aviation safe and secure is tough every day, but forcing federal employees to do it without pay is unacceptable,” Modern Skies said in the letter published in The Washington Post. “Without immediate government action, the federal employees charged with the safety of our aviation system are missing paychecks again this week.”
WIDESPREAD DISRUPTIONS
During the shutdown that has stretched on for six weeks, more than 5 million travelers have been affected by airline staffing issues, according to Airlines for America. Reductions to flight capacity at 40 major airports began last week, with the amount expected to ramp up to 10% by this Friday.
But cancellations have already topped that amount, according to reporting by CNBC. On Sunday, 10.2% of scheduled flights were canceled, followed by 8.7% on Monday, the news outlet reported, citing data from the aviation data firm Cirium.
Though the strain of the government shutdown has been widespread—including halting SNAP benefits for 41 million Americans—it’s been especially evident at airports. It took as long as three hours last week for travelers to get through the TSA lines at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport, according to reporting by CBS News. And a video went viral earlier this week of a frustrated Southwest Airlines pilot urging passengers on his flight to call their senators to end the shutdown.
The House of Representatives could vote on the legislation approved by the Senate to end the shutdown as soon as Wednesday, following the Veterans Day holiday.