Six months ago, the outcome of the November 3 midterm elections would have seemed impossible. Most states and regions were highly polarized politically. So-called purple states were generally a reflection of a balance of voters from different areas of the state that offset each other rather than a collection of moderates and independents.
Yet, states made enormous swings. I spent almost three decades living in Texas (and only moved away last year). A state that had not elected a single Democrat to a statewide office since 1994 saw every statewide office taken by Democrats. Similar stories occurred across the country, with Democrats winning in states and districts that had not flipped in decades.
There are three things to note about the election. First, registered Democrats turned out in droves compared with registered Republicans. Second, there were vast differences in polling numbers for different races within states that were often not reflected in the returns. Third, it appears that individual voters switched the party they voted for as well, though this is harder to validate on an individual basis.
What do these trends tell us about human behavior?
Motivation and action
Nationwide, about half of registered voters actually voted. That is a high turnout for a midterm election, but still means that only one out of every two voters cast a ballot. So, what gets people out to vote?
One factor that drives voting is habit. The best predictor of whether you vote in an election is whether you voted in a previous election. When it becomes a habit to vote, then you do it year in and year out in primaries and general elections.
Beyond habit, though, actions are generally driven by a combination of energy and efficacy. That is, someone needs to be energized to engage and needs to believe that voting has an impact on the world.
Energy comes from dissatisfaction. People are energized when there is a gap between where they are and where they would like to be. 2026 saw a high level of turnout in part because many people felt that gap between where their lives are (and where the country is) and where they (and the country) should be.