More and more of our loved ones could develop dementia, as the number of diagnoses is projected to more than double by 2050, according to new research.
In the absence of large-scale prevention efforts, the number of people who are diagnosed with dementia each year could total 24.7 million by 2050, up from 11.4 million in 2023, according to a study by Australian researchers published in JAMA Psychology. Women and people who live in low- and middle-income countries already have higher rates of dementia, a trend that’s likely to continue, according to the findings.
While the researchers didn’t pinpoint an exact reason why dementia affects populations differently, they say the prospect of more cases warrants urgency in investing in prevention efforts. The prospect of 24 million new cases of dementia each year would place “enormous pressure on individuals, families, health systems and economies around the world,” Henry Brodaty, co-director of the Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing at the University of New South Wales Sydney and a co-author of the study, said in a statement.
“We cannot simply wait for people to develop dementia and then respond,” Brodaty said. “We need to act across the spectrum—from reducing modifiable risk factors and identifying people at risk earlier, through to improving diagnosis, treatment and care.”
The researchers studied data from more than 38,000 people diagnosed with dementia that span 18 countries or territories on six continents. They found that the incidence was somewhat higher among women—at 10.6 cases per 1,000 people versus 8.6 for men—but the difference was even starker depending on where people lived. The incidence of dementia was 13.6 cases per 1,000 people in low- and middle-income countries, compared with 8.3 in high-income countries.
Understanding the populations who are most at-risk for developing dementia will be key to developing prevention, diagnosis and care strategies, according to the study’s authors.
“The higher incidence we observed in low- and middle-income countries is particularly concerning because these regions are experiencing rapid population aging while often having the fewest resources for prevention, diagnosis and care,” Perminder Sachdev, co-director of the Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing at the University of New South Wales in Sydney and a senior author of the study, said.
THE FINANCIAL TOLL OF DEMENTIA
Aging populations are understandably one of the main reasons why dementia cases are expected to increase, as this condition that affects memory, thinking and the ability to perform daily activities is more common after the age of 65. As of 2021, an estimated 57 million worldwide were living with dementia, according to figures from the World Health Organization, and it’s the seventh leading cause of death.
The World Health Organization likewise estimated that as of 2019, dementia cost economies around the world about $1.3 trillion, so a surge in new cases also carries a financial toll.
That’s why the new research should sound an alarm, as Dr. Liron Sinvani, director of research and innovation at the Northwell Institute for Healthy Aging and professor at the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research in New York, told U.S. News & World Report. “It’s an accelerating epidemic that demands immediate attention.”
And that’s especially important as the countries that will face an “enormous wave” of dementia cases also have very limited infrastructure to respond, as Sinvani told the outlet.
“Health systems must prepare for this massive increase in diagnostic and care demand, and this is especially true for these low- and middle-income countries where the growth will be fastest,” she said. “We know that dementia care requires a lot of caregiver support and is very costly. We will need a better infrastructure.”