QUESTION: Marty, if anyone has the truth about Iran, it is you. What do you make of this leaked document that they press claims reflects regime change in the wind? I believe your computer was forecasting that the Iranian government would change, but I think that was in 2027. Do you have an update on that as well?
Neil
ANSWER: Despite widespread calls for wartime unity across Iran, the weeklong grand funeral for Ali Khamenei, killed by the targeted assassination of Netanyahu in an ignominious act late February in Israeli airstrikes coordinated with the United States, became a powerful showcase for the Islamic Republic’s most hardline supporters. This foolish idea of Netanyahu of assassinating the leader and expecting the end of the war only demonstrates the stupidity of Netanyahu for he always takes this tactic and it has failed every time. During the funeral period for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Trump stated that “neither side should carry out military actions” and that talks with Iran would resume after the ceremonies concluded. This was a general call for restraint during the mourning period, and sources confirm it was directed at Netanyahu.
This has painted the Trump Administration as the great satan with Israel for such a dishonorable act. This has led to dividing the politics within Iran. The hardliners calling for the assassination of Trump should be seen as an eye for and eye established by the legal code of Hammurabi.
They used the occasion to amplify demands to avenge their leader through renewed war with Washington and to declare their rejection of any agreement with Trump. The leaked document was part of a silent soft coup within the Iranian government. As I have always said, no government has 100% of supporters. There are always two sides to every coin.
This is NOT about the government study of the people. This was leaked by the anti-hardliners. As Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian walked by the coffin of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, some of the hardliners began chanting at him, saying “death to the compromiser.” Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s top diplomat who negotiated a ceasefire with the Trump administration lifting some sanctions on the Islamic Republic, fled the funeral when a mob began throwing stones at him and screaming death chants accusing him of being a “traitorous sellout.”
This leak was not about showing that the Iranian people would stage some coup, it was leaked by the moderates in government who want a deal and have been attacked by the hardliners who believe in avenging Khamenei’s assassination, and the Iranian officials who have surrendered by signing an agreement that they interpret as defying the orders of Ali Khamenei and his successor Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son. But Mojtaba Khamenei has remained hidden from public view, neither addressing the nation directly nor visibly asserting his authority.
Hardliners have accused Iran’s visible leadership accuse them of treason and plotting to consolidate power by suspending parliament, defying the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei orders in negotiations while breaking up rallies of opposition. The hardliners portray this as a coup against the principles of the Islamic State.
Without access to the new supreme leader, hardliners are spinning the idea that he is captive of those seeking a settlement with the USA. They are pitching that Ghalibaf and allies are effectively in charge of the country – not Mojtaba Khamenei. This is the real political crisis inside Iran and this leak is less about the people than it is about the internal battle between the moderates and the ultra-hardliners who are accusing Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian of plotting a ‘coup’ against Mojtaba.
Mahmoud Nabavian, a Shia cleric, who was part of Iran’s negotiating delegation before turning against the talks and attempted to derail the agreement by leaking the text to the media before it was signed last month. He claimed that Iran’s negotiating team were defying the supreme leader’s orders.
Since the beginning of the ceasefire, they have consistently opposed the very concept of negotiation. Before the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States was signed, Hossein Sotoudeh, a prominent voice, sang in one of his tracks: “We all seek vengeance, we are on this path; men and women, we are in the army of Assadullah (the Lion of God). This is our slogan until the end of the world: we want no negotiation with the illegitimate ones.” The song emphasized that “we will not back down,” urged the “Commander” to “not let them talk nonsense, strike again and strike well,” and dismissed the ceasefire as “meaningless.”
In the weeks before hostilities broke out, hardliners turned their fury on the leaders who signed the deal with the US. Mohammad Ali Bakhshi, a security-linked “Maddah” – or religious singer who is loyal to the Iranian regime – warned Pezeshkian during a ceremony: “Mr President, if the leader’s conditions are not fulfilled, then it will be us, the blade and your throat …We will bring hell upon you.”
The open threat to kill the president was widely criticized, but Bakhshi is not known to have faced any legal repercussions.
Other officials under hardline scrutiny include Iran’s chief negotiator with the US, Ghalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guard commander with deep political experience whose credentials enabled him to step up and take charge during the war, emerging as the regime’s de-facto lead operator with broad acceptability.
“They are trying to elevate the role of the Supreme Council for National Security while diminishing the role of the supreme leader and parliament,” Kamran Ghazanfari, a hardline parliamentarian, said in a video statement early July, referring to the council now deciding the country’s most sensitive wartime affairs. “This is the political coup they have designed and are carrying out step by step.”
I was actually asked, how did I know Iran would block the straight? My reply: How did you not know? There were war simulations conducted years ago and every one had Iran taking the strait. Trump received the WORST possible advice and Netanyahu was escorted into the Situation Room where no head of state ever entered before to sell a war to the USA. This implies to me that this is another Neocon endless war for world domination. It was sold that killing the Ayatolah would end the war in a day, the people would rise up, thank Trump and give Netanyahu a tickertape parade. They sang the same tune regarding Iraq.
So let’s get real. The Neocons are spinning this that the people need to be saved. That is the same BS that used in Iraq, and Obama tried to justify invading Syria. This is NOT about the people, this is a coup within the government and it was leaked by the moderates as a ploy against the hardliners.