The government shutdown is delaying another major economic report, leaving policymakers at the Federal Reserve with a cloudier picture even as the economy enters a challenging phase of stubbornly persistent inflation and a sharp slowdown in hiring.
The Labor Department’s monthly inflation data was scheduled for release Wednesday, but late last week was postponed until Oct. 24. The department is recalling some employees to assemble the data, which was collected before the shutdown began. The figures are needed for the government to calculate the annual cost of living adjustment for tens of millions of recipients of benefit programs such as Social Security.
The shutdown could make things worse for agencies like the Fed if it continues, because government agencies cannot collect the raw data that are then compiled into the monthly reports on jobs, inflation, and other economic trends. The September employment report, for example, which was due to be released Oct. 3 but was not issued because of the shutdown, was essentially completed before the government closed and could be released fairly quickly once the shutdown ends. But October data could be delayed much longer.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics that the central bank for now is looking at data from the private sector, such as payroll processor ADP, which issues its own monthly report on hiring by U.S. businesses, to gauge the economy. It is also relying on anecdotal reports from the hundreds of businesses that the regional Fed banks consult with.
But while there are many firms that compile jobs-related data, there are fewer alternative sources of information to track inflation and growth, Powell added.
“We’ll start to miss that data and particularly the October data,” Powell said. “If this goes on for a while, they won’t be collecting it. And it could become more challenging.”
The Fed is already in a difficult spot, Powell has said, as it grapples with two policy goals that are nearly in conflict. It is tasked by Congress with seeking both maximum employment and stable prices.
Right now, inflation remains above the Fed’s target of 2%, with the latest figures showing prices rose 2.9% compared with a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred measure. Typically, elevated inflation would lead the Fed to raise its key interest rate, or at least keep it elevated.
Yet hiring has also weakened considerably, and the unemployment rate has ticked up to a still-low 4.3% in August from 4.2% in the previous month. When the Fed’s other goal of maximum employment is threatened, it usually responds with the opposite approach: Cutting rates to spur more borrowing and spending.
On Tuesday, Powell noted those challenges and said, “There really isn’t a risk-free path.”
—Christopher Rugaber, AP Economics Writer